Komentáře a tipy k vývoji měnových párů - IV.

[lisakus]

Teqa
no něco jsem posbíral, ale nastavil jsem na noc profity kolem 90 pipsů a ráno bylo jiš vše pozavírané, takže jsem něco shrábl short po evropské korekci, takže taky spokojenost, na radovana nemám ale účet mi taky narost o 11%.

[buchel]

ma niekto nejaky napad ktorym smerom pojde EUR/USD? ;-)

[Retro]

Zkus se podívat na níže uvedené stránky (mnohokrát zde propírané) a porovnej s vlastním pohledem na věc:
www.mataf.net/en/forex-eurusd.htm
www.tradingfloor.com/en/tradingfloor/technical_analysis/forex
applet.efxnow.com/WEBCLIENT/RESEARCH/researchPage.aspx?page=StrategyOfDay&Brand=XXXX&Lang=EN

Tohle mi dnes přišlo, bohužel neumím anglicky, tak nevím o co jde.... Snad se na mne administr nebude zlobit, příppadně prosím příspěvek smáznout.
1. Friday, January 5th, 2007 (7:00 am New York Time) CANADA
We have net change in employment coming out of Canada. This report has been forecasted at 15K for the last few months, and this month it's no different. Economists are again expecting the Employment figure to come out at 15K. I've looked at opinions of around 20 different economists, and only one of them is expecting the number to come out at 0K, nobody is expecting a negative number. At the same time, nobody is expecting a reading of over 21K either. In the last 6 months of trading this report, I had 4 excellent forex trades, because three times, the number came out negative, and once it came out above 50. the other two times, it came out at 16.2K and 22.4K last month, so it gave no trade signals. So why am I saying all this? I am saying all this, because this is a high probability report to give a trade, so I suggest watching it, and looking for trading opportunities. Here is what I am going to do. If this number comes out at 30K or higher, that would be good for the Canadian dollar, and it would mean a short trading signal for me on the USD/CAD pair. If it comes out at 0K or negative, it would be bad for the Canadian dollar, and it would mean a long trading signal for me on the USD/CAD pair. Anything in between would signify a no trade signal for me. I'll also keep my eye on the Unemployment rate, which is expected at 6.3%. This number is derived through different data sampling than employment change, and it could conflict. So if this number conflicts with the employment data, I would be looking to exit my trade with whatever profit I have rather sooner than later.

2. Friday, January 5th, 2007 (8:30 am New York Time) USA
Then we have the forex event of the month...the Non-Farm Payroll report. Earlier this week, we had the ADP Employment figure coming out. It was expected to come out at 120K, but shockingly came out at -40K. ADP is supposed to give us hints on what's going on with the Non-Farm payroll, because it samples the same employment data, just in much smaller quantity. Since the release of the ADP Employment, the average Non-Farm consensus was revised from 120K to 100K, and I think it should be even lower. I honestly think that a lot of the economists that gave their consensus on non-farm payroll in the last couple of weeks, simply were too busy or lazy to revise it. Another reason the ADP number was kind of discounted and the consensus was more or less kept the same was because this report already had a fluke in June of last year, coming out at 368K, and the non-farm payroll few days later came out at 134K. It'll be interesting to see what happens tomorrow :) A reading of -40K is extremely radical...I can't wait to see whether it'll be more or less confirmed. So here is what I will do tomorrow. If Non-Farm payroll will come out at 50K or less, it would be bad for the dollar and would possibly be a long trading signal for me on GBP/USD. 50K or lower reading would be the lowest reading since October of 2005. If Non-Farm payroll number reads 150K or more, it would be a very healthy reading, and good for the dollar, so it would possibly be a short trading signal for me on GBP/USD. I am going to watch out for conflicting revisions of previous number at 132K, and will also watch out for conflicts in unemployment figure, which is expected to come out at 4.5%. A big conflicting revision, can reverse the trade direction. So watch out :)

[buchel]

Retro:
no super este ze to moze ist iba tromi smermi ! ;-))))

[radekter]

lisakus, radovan: podle čeho jste šli přes noc do librojenu?

[Sid]

Retro
zase ty english copy...jsem tady většinou Češi a Slováci...

můj názor na dnešní zámořská data:

1. CAD bude dnes v 13,00 velmi zajímavý, za pár dnů oslabil o více než 150 bodů, jako typicky komoditní měna, hlavně díky klesající ropě i některým dalším komoditám..ta dnes opět mírně klesá a plácá se kolem 55USD/barel. Těžko něco odhadovat, data o nezaměstnanosti budou asi mírně optimist, ale ty komodity...Pokud budou data pro CAD horší než předpoklad asi bude směle atakovat hranici 1,18 - v opačném případě bych vsadil na mírné posílení CAD a short korekci..., ale jen do 14,30...

2. V 14,30 budou důležitá nejen aktuální data USA, ale i revize za minulé období. Ani "experti" se moc v předpovědích neshodují a rozptyl tipů na Bloomberg je značný od 22K do 164K (ustálený předpoklad 115K, předcházející 132K) - bez názoru a raději vyčkat..
www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=a3U2QZdd0n60&refer=currency
SID

[gogo100]

SIDe,

kde hlasia tie revizie?? :)

[lisakus]

gogo100 Napsal:
-------------------------------------------------------
> SIDe,
>
> kde hlasia tie revizie?? :)


Revize máš údáj minulý a je u něj R, je dobrí si pamatocvat kolik bylo minulé období a o kolik se liší nový údaj s R

[Sid]

gogo
bohužel až souběžně s daty...
SID

[lisakus]

Jinak k tomu USD/CAD se pohybuje od včerejška v pásmu 27 pips takže entry budu pokládat pod dnešní LOW a nad dnešní HIGH.

[Endy]

Redakter,
ten pohyb na GBPJPY (a ostatnych JPY paroch) cez noc sa pripisuje okrem ineho nocnym vyjadreniam ministra financii Japonska, ze nebude stat v ceste rozhodnutiam Bank of Japan. Co sa vylozilo ako zvysenie sanca pre tohto mesacne zdvihnutie urokovej sadzby v Japonsku.
Endy

[Sid]

Kanada - 62K a 6,1%..zatím to vypadá na tu short korekci..
SID

[radekter]

62k je docela prekvapeni. docela dlouho trvalo nez to na ten jih vyrazilo a neni to tedy zadny sesup. ze by prodolarovy sentiment? anebo vsichni cekaji na us data? nebo ze by tech 6,1% hralo roli? who knows?
radeji uz jsem z toho venku

[lisakus]

radekter
o 0,2 % nižší nezaměstnanost je většinou tahoun, čekám 100-120 pips směr short, určitě to podržím do zpráv ve 14:30 a těsný SL.

[911]

pokud se bavime o payroll tak konsensus byl 100K a ted je 113K. unemployment rate vypada stale na 4,5%
odebirate nekdo audio zpravy? kde se to hlasi chvili pred ofiko vydanim?